Truckload Market Stagnates as Cross-Border Freight Stalls

The transportation and logistics sector continues to suffer from weak demand, tariff-driven uncertainty, and an unstable employment trend. Even now, as we draw closer to the end of Q3, the industry is navigating stagnant truckload rates and marginal cross-border growth.

Retailers are sharpening holiday inventory strategies to mitigate costs. And labor markets are showing pockets of resilience in warehousing, even as trucking jobs continue to slide. Meanwhile, the removal of the de minimis exemption for low-cost imports is sending shockwaves through global trade networks.

Continue reading this edition of the Inbound Newsletter for insights into the market trends impacting our industry.

Truckload Market Stagnates Despite Seasonal Rate Spikes

The U.S. truckload market remains mired in a three-year downturn, with no lasting catalyst to lift demand. According to the Journal of Commerce, the average U.S. shipper-paid spot rate held flat at $2.23 per mile in August, a minimal change from July and only slight movement compared with the past two years. 

There were short bursts of rate increases, which were tied to events like produce season and holiday demand, but they quickly receded. Nevertheless, California bucked the trend, with outbound spot rates climbing to $2.65 per mile as imports flowed inland. 

Analysts such as DAT’s Dean Croke have stressed that shippers still hold pricing power, with abundant capacity nationwide. The truckload Producer Price Index also remained trapped in a narrow band, reinforcing the industry’s prolonged malaise.

Cross-Border Freight Stalls Under Tariff Uncertainty

Northbound U.S.-Mexico truck crossings in July rose just 0.3% year over year. The slight increase is a reflection of the soft demand and the drag of tariff uncertainty. Bureau of Transportation Statistics data shows Laredo, Texas, the largest U.S. land port, posted a 2.8% annualized decline despite a month-to-month gain, while El Paso/Ysleta registered modest growth. 

Analysts are reporting that supply chains lack flexibility for large inventory pull-forward, which has left many companies in a wait-and-see mode. However, freight values are telling a different story. Bilateral truck trade increased 6.2% in July to $53.5 billion, with year-to-date trade at $318 billion, up 6.3%. Logistics providers like Redwood, Echo, and J.B. Hunt are betting on nearshoring momentum and backing it up by expanding Mexico operations.

Truck Transportation Jobs Continue Downward Trend

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, U.S. truck transportation employment has continued a five-month drift, edging down by 900 jobs in August to 1,523,000. The figure is 6,600 jobs lower than August 2024 and far below the sector’s 2022 peak of 1.587 million. Independent economist Aaron Terrazas noted that after a decade of rapid growth, trucking jobs have stagnated since 2022, contrasting with gains in warehousing and package delivery. 

David Spencer of Arrive Logistics described the current labor picture as “relatively stable” but warned that capacity attrition could accelerate, leading to further job losses. Warehousing employment, by comparison, rose sharply after a major July revision, totaling 1,829,800 jobs in August. Analysts say year-end demand could provide carriers with a temporary rate lift, though broader recovery remains elusive.

Retailers Tighten Holiday Inventories Amid Tariff Pressures

Inventory strategies for the holiday season have revealed sharp divides between large and small retailers as tariffs weigh on supply chains. According to the August Logistics Managers’ Index, large retailers like Walmart are narrowing product assortments to focus on high-volume sellers. Smaller companies, however, face sharply higher inventory costs, with an index reading of 83.7 versus 72.2 for larger companies. 

Analysts warn that tariffs are feeding inflationary pressures as retailers begin selling goods procured at higher costs. Consumer demand is softening, with C.H. Robinson reporting that households across income levels are trading down in brand and quantity. Logistics executives noted reduced ocean freight activity into U.S. ports, with carriers reporting booking volumes down 20% in recent weeks, signaling a muted holiday peak season and continued retailer caution.

Postal Imports Collapse After De Minimis Exemption Ends

International postal shipments to the U.S. collapsed by more than 80% after the Trump administration eliminated the long-standing de minimis exemption on low-value imports. 

The Universal Postal Union (UPU) reported that 88 postal operators suspended some or all shipments, citing an inability to comply with new rules requiring carriers or CBP-approved intermediaries to collect and remit duties on parcels valued at $800 or less. Traffic from UPU’s 192 member nations dropped 81% on August 29, the day the rule took effect. The abrupt shift has caused major operational disruptions, with tariff rates now ranging from 10% to 50% depending on origin.

Find Success in a Volatile Market with Bound Logistics

We understand the market is incredibly volatile. But that is all the more reason you need a transportation partner that guarantees stability. And at Bound Logistics, stability is our middle name. With us, you will get specialized transportation of import and export ocean container services, LTL, and TL out of all the ports. With us, rest assured your goods will travel from the pier to the warehouse quickly and safely in a cost-effective manner.